There is growing scientific and political consensus that deep cuts of GHG, including CO2 emissions to atmosphere must be achieved urgently in order to mitigate global climate change. The Stern Review (2006), the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007) and the Garnaut Review (2008) argue that strategies for reducingemissions by 50 percent by 2050 are fundamental if the potentially catastrophic impacts of climate change are to be avoided. The objective to develop and widely deploy CCS is central to this goal.
The IEA has predicted that CCS has the potential to contribute to 19 percent of GHG emissions reduction to atmosphere, as part of a portfolio of responses, by 2050 to avoid dangerous climate change. The portfolio of responses additionally includes significantly expanding renewable energy and energy efficiency amongst other measures.
The lEAs analysis states that all of the technologies must be effective, including CCS, if the deep cuts in CO2 emissions are to be achieved. That is, the deployment of CCS is not optional. It must occur if dangerous climate change is to be avoided.
For CCS to contribute to the decarbonisation of energy at the scale required, and in the timeframes necessary to avoid dangerous climate change, an energy revolution must occur. This revolution is similar to implementing the worlds existing infrastructure for hydrocarbons developed over the past century but within the next 40 years.
The benefits of CCS in terms of catalysing new infrastructure investments, ensuring energy security and developing new skilled jobs in a greener economy are significant.
However, before CCS can be deployed widely, many key challenges and gaps must be addressed. To put this challenge into context, and as stated previously, if CCS is to realise its potential of contributing 19 percent of global CO2 emission reduction to atmosphere, a storage rate of 10.1 Gtpa is required by 2050 (IEA, 2008).
The seven operating commercial scale, integrated CCS projects identified in this study are collectively storing less than 10 Mtpa. Therefore, to achieve the global CO2 emissions reduction target for CCS will require 1,000 times the annual rate of storage of the existing commercial scale projects.
Achieving the global CO2 emissions reduction target from CCS will require 1,000 times the annual rate of storage of the existing commercial scale projects
This section of the Strategic Analysis of the Global Status of CCS considers the key gaps and barriers to its development and deployment. Having reviewed the current status of CCS in regards to proposed projects, economics, policy and legislative frameworks and R&D underway, the findings suggest that theobjective is ambitious. While there have been positive developments across all of these issues in recent years significantly much more effort is required if the G8 goal is to be met.
The following section synthesises the findings identified in the four foundation reports to assess the key CCS gaps and challenges. This discussion is guided by aprocess developed using an expert panel and the coordinators of the four foundation reports to identify, rank and compare key issues. Through this process the risks can be ranked and prioritised to allow the identification of a set of mitigation strategies developed for consideration and action by the Global CCS Institute. These actions need to be considered by the in developing a comprehensive strategic plan to facilitate achievement of the G8 goal.