3.5 Project status and trends

The database of CCS projects contains a total of 499 entries. Of these, 224 entries are small scale research and development activities. The details of these activities are recorded in the database but are not considered in the analysis of this report. Accordingly, data from 275 CCS projects that meet the criteria form the basis of this study’s analysis.

The status of CCS projects has been grouped into the following categories.

  • Planned projects are in the Identify, Evaluate or Define stage of the asset lifecycle prior to sanction.
  • Active projects are in the Execute or Operate stage of the asset lifecycle after having been sanctioned. It is important to note that active does not necessarily mean that a project is operating or actively injecting CO2 for storage.
  • Delayed projects are those that have had activities postponed and, for all intents and purposes, stalled relative to the project schedule. These projects are planned to resume at some point if more favourable conditions develop and can occur at any stage of the asset lifecycle.
  • Cancelled projects are those that have ceased activities prior to fulfilling their intent and have no intention of resuming. These can occur at any stage of the asset lifecycle.
  • Completed projects are those that have fulfilled their original intent. For example, this may be the construction and operation of a pilot plant for a limited period of time.

Figure 3-2 articulates the hierarchy of analysis applied in this section to interpret the data. This hierarchy leads to the analysis of the commercial scale, integrated projects that have potential to support the G8 objective.

Figure 3-2 Hierarchy of analysis

Figure 3-2 shows the following division of the 275 CCS projects by status:

  • 213 active or planned projects, including those which are operating;
  • 34 projects that have been completed;
  • 26 cancelled or delayed projects; and
  • 2 projects where the respondents have chosen to withhold the project status.

The active or planned projects are then examined further by their scale and CCS project type. Of the 213 active or planned projects, 101 are of commercial scale. Of these, 62 are considered as integrated that is, demonstrate the entire CCS process chain of CO2 capture, transport and storage.

3.5.1 Total projects by region

The 275 identified projects are distributed in regional areas as shown in Figure 3-3.

Figure 3-3 Total projects by geographic region

The data reveals that the USA is the most active country in CCS projects, accounting for 37 percent of the identified projects. There is also significant activity in the Europe Area which accounted for 24 percent of all identified CCS projects followed by Australia and New Zealand, Canada and China.

There is evidence of widespread activity across the Europe Area. This may be driven by CCS competitions, initiatives and funding schemes that are applied across the European Union (EU).

The data shows that many countries have implemented funding schemes. For example, the Australian federal government recently launched its CCS Flagships program, Europe has had a funding scheme for CCS, as has Canada and particularly, the Province of Alberta. The UK is currently running a competition for funding CCS. These funding schemes, amongst others, are described in greater detail in Section 5.2.4. These mechanisms are proving successful in promoting activity. However, the results indicate the majority of the activities are at the early stages of the asset lifecycle where funding requirements are relatively low compared to the estimated total capital cost of the project.

In North America, the capacity of the oil and gas industry means there are significant opportunities for CCS involving enhanced oil or gas recovery. This not only promotes activity but also represents some of the most mature projects globally.

The status of the 275 CCS projects classified according to the categories developed for project status in Section 3.5 are summarised in Figure 3-4.

Figure 3-4 Total projects by status

There are 26 projects that have been delayed or cancelled, and two where the project proponents have decided to withhold information in this category.

Figure 3-4 also shows that there were 34 completed CCS projects out of a total of 275.

The majority of the completed projects are relatively small in scale. This may be because the economic, technical, regulatory and public acceptance challenges were smaller or fewer at this scale. As a result, these challenges did not present significant barriers to these projects.

No integrated projects have been completed at any scale.

3.5.2 Active or planned CCS projects by geographic region

Of the 275 projects listed, 213 projects (77 percent) are active or planned at this time. This includes projects which are in the Operate stage.

The geographic distribution of active or planned CCS projects follows a similar trend to that of all projects, with the USA and Europe being dominant. Australia, Canada and China also represent significant activity.

3.5.3 Active or planned CCS projects by scale

The projects surveyed have been characterised according to the metrics developed for project scale. Figure 3-5 below shows that the current state of development is such that most projects fall into the demonstration or commercial scale category.

Figure 3-5 Breakdown of active or planned CCS projects by scale

101

active or planned projects are of commercial scale

There are 101 active or planned projects which are of commercial scale according to the criteria developed for this report. There are an additional 63 projects which are demonstration scale. Together these categories account for 77 percent of the 213 identified active or planned CCS projects. This distribution is unexpected given the perceived relative immaturity of CCS worldwide. For an emerging technology space it is generally expected that most projects will be bench scale, with a downward trend of project counts as it approaches commercial scale.

Of the active or planned, commercial scale CCS projects, 73 of these (72 percent) are being planned. That is, they are at the Identify, Evaluate of Define stages of the asset lifecycle prior to project sanction. This may represent the large number of projects currently being proposed globally in response to government funding initiatives and grants.

The largest number of active projects is at demonstration scale. This subset represents 44 percent, or 34 of the total 78 active projects. The second largest group of active projects are at commercial scale, representing 28 projects (36 percent).

3.5.4 Active or planned CCS projects by type

Figure 3-6 presents the distribution of the active or planned CCS projects by their project type.

Figure 3-6 Active or planned CCS projects by type

The active or planned CCS projects are dominated by integrated, capture only and storage only CCS project types.

Integrated projects represent the second largest category. This could be in response to the current raft of stimulatory funding competitions and programs in key regions which are dictating that projects be of an integrated nature to be eligible.

The majority of the 83 capture only projects are in the power generation sector (53), followed by fertiliser production (10) and gas processing (9).

Of the storage only projects, 21 are for beneficial reuse (such as EOR or EGR) and 19 for geological storage. There are six storage only projects that are storing or planning to store using terrestrial storage methods such as bio-sequestration in agricultural lands or forests. The remaining storage only project is currently not categorised.

Within the 213 active or planned projects, 159 of these employ the following forms of CO2 capture: pre-combustion, post-combustion and oxyfuel combustion.

Table 3-2 Active or planned CCS projects by capture type

Capture type Number of projects
Pre-combustion 56
Post-combustion 76
Oxyfuel combustion 14
Not categorised 13
Total 159

Pre-combustion capture is almost exclusively used in conjunction with gasification technologies. Oxyfuel combustion technologies are inherently associated with the actual process of combusting fuel, and at this stage, are largely being developed for power generation. It can be applied to both new build or as a retrofit to an existing conventional power station.

3.5.5 Active or planned CCS projects by storage type

Within the 213 active or planned projects, 129 of these projects involve a form of CO2 storage. Figure 3-7 shows the distribution of projects by storage method employed.

Figure 3-7 Active or planned CCS projects by storage type

129

projects involve some form of CO2 storage

The survey shows that geological storage and beneficial reuse are the major methods currently being undertaken or planned for sequestering captured CO2. Collectively they account for 89 percent of the projects which include a storage component. Geological storage represents 55 percent of storage projects, while beneficial reuse accounts for a further 34 percent.

There is signficant global potential for safe, long-term storage in saline reservoirs

Of the projects undertaking or planning to undertake geological storage, 53 percent are for storage in saline reservoirs. This is encouraging given the significant global potential for safe, long-term CO2 storage in these formations. Storage in depleted oil or gas fields represented 28 percent of proposed projects. This too is positive given that in general, there is usually more data available from the operation of hydrocarbon activities.

Of the projects considering beneficial reuse, 55 percent are for EOR. This is unsurprising as EOR has been applied for many decades. The next most common forms of beneficial reuse are EGR and ECBM recovery, accounting for 11 percent each. These projects are able to partially offset the cost of storing CO2 by the revenue associated with enhanced oil or gas production.

There is ongoing conjecture on the validity of beneficial reuse of CO2 for EOR and the other beneficial reuse types of storage as long-term storage options for CCS.

Measurement, monitoring, and verification (MMV) associated with beneficial reuse is the means of determining how much actual CO2 has been stored in the reservoir. The remaining CO2 is extracted with the resource (eg, oil, coal seam methane) and then recycled for use in the injection and recovery process. This therefore, requires measurement of the amount received from the capture plant and injected, as well as measurement of the amount that is separated from the resource being extracted for recycling. The MMV process must also include monitoring of any leakage from the reservoir and this must continue after the recovery of the resource has ceased. This is to ensure the integrity of the reservoir. It is important to note that not all the projects identified as using EOR or other beneficial reuse are performing MMV because it results in additional capital and operating costs. The application of MMV to these projects could significantly advance learnings in subsurface storage.

3.5.6 Active or planned CCS projects by facility

The 213 active or planned projects were also arranged by the facility type. This included a range of facilities from government sponsored research laboratories to commercial hydrocarbon refineries. Other types of facilities where CO2 capture is currently being utilised, or is being planned, include power, fertiliser production, iron/steel production and gas processing plants as shown in Figure 3-8.

Figure 3-8 Active or planned CCS projects by facility

50

percent of all active or planned projects are in the power generation sector

The efforts to develop CCS projects are concentrated in the power industry, representing approximately 50 percent of all active or planned projects.

The gas processing and oil/gas recovery industries represent the next largest group of facilities which are considering or applying CCS.

The survey revealed that the steel production industry, another source of significant CO2 emissions, only had three active or planned CCS projects.

Based on the data, other large CO2 emitting industries such as cement and aluminium production do not represent any significant activity in the CCS space.

3.5.7 Active or planned, commercial scale CCS projects

Of the 213 active or planned projects, 101 of these are at commercial scale.

The distribution of the active or planned, commercial scale CCS projects by region is similar to that for all projects.

The largest number of these active or planned, commercial scale CCS projects are in Europe and the USA, both accounting for 33 percent each. This is followed by Canada (12 percent), Australia (8 percent) and China (5 percent).

There are no active or planned, commercial scale CCS projects identified in the Indian sub-continent, South America or Japan. However, many Japanese original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are engaged with CCS projects in other countries.

Active or planned, commercial scale CCS projects in developing Countries

Nine of the 101 active or planned, commercial scale CCS projects are located in developing nations. The classification of “developed” and “developing” countries is consistent with the standard described by the United Nations (United Nations, 2008). These projects are listed in Table 3-3.

9

of the 101 active or planned, commercial scale CCS projects are in developing nations

Table 3-3 Active or planned, commercial scale CCS projects in developing countries

Project Location Project Description Approx. CO2 Storage Rates Asset Lifecycle Stage
Yulin Chemical Plant Shanxi Province, China A coal to chemicals plant is being studied for CO2 storage via various routes 5.0-10.0 Mtpa Identify
Bintulu LNG Plant Malaysia Capture, transport and storage of CO2 3.0 Mtpa Evaluate
Lianyungang IGCC Jiangsu, China CO2 captured from post or pre-combustion capture to be transported and stored 0.1-1.0 Mtpa Evaluate
Dongguan Taiyangzhou IGCC Guangdong, China Pre-combustion CO2 capture for transport and storage 0.1-1.0 Mtpa Evaluate
GreenGen IGCC Project Tianjin, China Pre-combustion CO2 capture for permanent storage or EOR TBD / not specified Evaluate
Masdar CCS Project UAE CO2 from a power plant, steel and aluminium production transported by pipeline for EOR 4.3 Mtpa Define
Hydrogen Power Abu Dhabi (HPAD) Abu Dhabi, UAE Capture portion providing CO2 to the Masdar CO2 transportation project (above) 1.7 Mtpa Define
Huaneng Shanghai Shidongkou Power Plant Shanghai, China CO2 capture from a coal-fired power station for industry use 0.1 Mtpa Execute
In Salah CO2 Injection Ouargla, Algeria CO2 is separated from produced gas and is transported by pipeline to a fully operational onshore gas field 1.2 Mtpa Operate

The number of active or planned, commercial scale CCS projects in developing nations is encouraging, particularly given the challenges CCS proponents face such as limited access to capital and immature regulatory frameworks. However, from the perspective of current and predicted global CO2 emission sources, the small number of projects in these countries relative to developed nations is concerning.

3.5.8 Active or planned, commercial scale projects by CCS project type

Figure 3-9 presents the distribution of active or planned, commercial scale projects by their CCS project type.

Figure 3-9 CCS project types for active or planned, commercial scale projects

Figure 3-9 shows that integrated and capture only projects represent the largest categories of the active or planned, commercial scale projects.

Further analysis was conducted to compare the position in the asset lifecycle of projects that are part of an integrated system, or exist as a standalone CO2 capture, transport or storage project.

The first column of Table 3-4 shows the asset lifecycle stage for active or planned, commercial scale CCS projects that are not integrated. At commercial scale, these projects are all either capture only or capture ready. The second column of the table presents the distribution across asset lifecycle stages for projects that are integrated, either being undertaken entirely by a single entity or integrated as a cooperative chain of separate CCS entities. For the latter case, these CCS projects would be dependent on at least one other entity to complete the CO2 capture, transport and storage process chain.

Table 3-4 Asset lifecycle stage of active or planned, commercial scale CCS projects

Stage Not integrated Integrated (either independently or as part of a complete CCS system)
Identify 5 22
Evaluate 2 21
Define 2 21
Execute 7 7
Operate 4 10

3.5.9 Active or planned, commercial scale, integrated CCS projects

A filter was applied on the 101 active or planned, commercial scale projects to determine if they are integrated. There are 62 projects that are categorised as active or planned, commercial scale, integrated CCS projects. Of the 62 projects, 30 have been classified as ‘dependent’ projects. This indicates that these projects involve separate capture, transport and storage activities that are connected to form an integrated CCS system.

62

active or planned, commercial scale, integrated CCS projects

The 62 active or planned, commercial scale, integrated CCS projects are shown by geographic location in Figure 3-10. The listing of these 62 projects is tabulated in Appendix A.

Figure 3-11 shows the distribution of these projects across the five stages of the asset lifecycle.

Figure 3-10 Active or planned, commercial scale, integrated CCS projects by capture facility, storage type and region

Figure 3-11 Number of active or planned, commercial scale, integrated CCS projects by region and stage in asset lifecycle

The Europe area with 23 active or planned, commercial scale, integrated CCS projects has the most projects of any region. This can be largely attributed to the 2007 commitment by the EU to construct 10 to 12 full-scale CCS demonstration plants by 2015. As discussed previously, 300 million EUAs were allocated to support this objective and could be causing rent seeking behaviour from project developers. The viability of these projects will need to be assessed as part of the EU competitive bidding process.

Europe, the USA, Australia and Canada are leaders in developing commercial scale, integrated CCS projects

The USA has the second highest number (15) of active or planned, commercial scale, integrated CCS projects. Australia has seven projects within this subset, of which none are in the Execute or Operate stages. (Note the Gorgon Project at the time of this study was in the Define stage. It has now been progressed to the Execute stage). Canada has six commercial scale, integrated CCS projects.

The operational commercial scale, integrated CCS projects are listed below.

  • Rangely, Colorado, USA, CO2 from natural gas (NG) processing for EOR
  • Sleipner, North Sea, Norway, CO2 from NG processing for geological storage in saline aquifers
  • Val Verde, Texas, USA, CO2 from NG processing for EOR
  • Weyburn, Saskatchewan, Canada, CO2 from coal gasification for EOR
  • In Salah, Ouargla, Algeria, CO2 from NG processing for geological storage
  • Salt Creek, Wyoming, USA, CO2 from NG processing for EOR
  • Snøhvit, Barents Sea, Norway, CO2 from NG processing for geological storage

The authors understand that the Snøhvit project is capturing and storing approximately 700,000 tpa CO2. While it technically does not meet the commercial storage criteria used in this study it was included because the storage volume is significant and it is a commercial plant currently in operation.

There are currently no active or planned, commercial scale, integrated CCS projects in India, Japan or South America.

There are currently no active or planned, commercial scale integrated projects in India, Japan or South America

As stated previously, of the 62 projects, 30 have been classified as ”dependent” projects. This indicates that these projects involve separate capture, transport and storage projects that are being pursued by independent business interests. These need to be connected to form an integrated CCS system, and are dependent upon the success of other operators’ and/or owners’ related projects.

An example of this is the Genesee CCS Project in Alberta, Canada, where separate entities are undertaking the CO2 capture, transport and storage components.

For those active or planned, commercial scale, integrated projects with a specified storage type of geological storage or beneficial reuse, their current positions in the asset lifecycle are shown in Table 3-5.

Table 3-5 Asset lifecycle stage for commercial scale, integrated projects by storage type

Asset lifecycle stage Geological storage Beneficial reuse
Identify 14 1
Evaluate 14 3
Define 18 6
Execute 0 2
Operate 3 4
Total 49 16

3.5.10 Cancelled or delayed projects

Of the 275 CCS projects in the database, 26 (9 percent) have been cancelled or delayed.

Figure 3-12 Cancelled or delayed projects by facility

Of the 26 cancelled or delayed projects, 20 of these (77 precent) are commercial scale. Larger scale projects may carry greater inherent financial, regulatory, technical and public acceptance issues resulting in them being more likely to be cancelled or delayed.

Larger projects carry greater inherent financial, regulatory, technical and public acceptance issues, and are more likely to be cancelled or delayed