1.3 How have CCS projects been analysed?

1.3.1 What is the asset lifecycle model?

The projects were categorised and analysed using a number of different metrics and classifications to undertake empirical analysis. One of these classifications was the asset lifecycle model, which is used by WorleyParsons to delineate between the stages of a project’s development and operation (Figure 1-2). This articulates a staged approach with a series of “go/no-go” decision gates at various levels of design definition, cost estimating, execution planning and risk analysis. This is intended to assist project developers in reducing technical and commercial uncertainty, and to allow them to make informed investment decisions at each decision gate.

10-15

percent of a project’s total installed cost could be spent to achieve completion of the Define stage

The key issue for CCS stakeholders is that from a project development perspective, industry experience suggests that approximately 10 to 15 percent of a project’s total installed cost is likely to be incurred to progress from the Identify to the Define stages prior to sanction. This means significant funding is required to develop the business case of CCS projects.

Figure 1-2 The asset lifecycle model Source: WorleyParsons, 2009

1.3.2 How has the status of CCS projects been determined?

The status of CCS projects has been grouped into the following categories.

  • Planned projects are in the Identify, Evaluate or Define stage.
  • Active projects are in the Execute or Operate stage after having been sanctioned.
  • Delayed projects are those that have had activities postponed and, for all intents and purposes, stalled.
  • Cancelled projects are those that have ceased activities prior to fulfilling their intent and have no intention of resuming.
  • Completed projects are those that have fulfilled their original intent and have ceased operation and/or demobilised.

1.3.3 What is the status of CCS projects?

The Global CCS Institute projects database currently contains 499 CCS activities. The information provided in the database is categorised according to key parameters of:

  • project facility;
  • region;
  • capture, transport and storage technologies;
  • scale;
  • asset lifecycle; and
  • status.

When activities that were primarily research based were removed from the data set, 275 CCS projects remained, the breakdown of which is shown in Figure 1-3.

275

projects were identified

Figure 1-3 Status of CCS projects

The 213 active or planned projects were then examined further by their scale and CCS project type. Of the 213 active or planned projects, 101 are of commercial scale. Of these, 62 projects are considered as integrated that is, they demonstrate the entire CCS process chain of CO2 capture, transport and storage. Seven of these are already in operation. This leaves potentially 55 projects that could be candidates for the G8 objective.

62

active or planned, commercial scale, integrated CCS projects

The largest number of active or planned CCS projects is in the Evaluate phase. In the Identify, Evaluate and Define stages, there are collectively 135 projects, representing 63 percent of all active or planned CCS projects. This shows a dynamic level of activity and a significant pipeline of potential CCS projects being investigated.

1.3.4 What is a commercial scale, integrated CCS project?

As stated previously, given that storage underpins the entire CCS chain, the metric suggested by the G8/IEA/CSLF of commercial scale CCS projects storing 1 Mtpa or greater of CO2 was applied. Of the 213 active or planned, CCS projects, 101 of these (47 percent) are considered commercial scale.

Commercial scale CCS projects store greater than 1 Mtpa of CO2

An integrated project is where the capture, transport and storage components are undertaken by a single project owner or operator with the view to developing and deploying a full source-to-sink CCS solution.

Projects that have a CO2 capture, transport or storage component and are integrated with other components being undertaken by a separate entity have been classified as “dependent” integrated CCS projects. Proponents managing a dependent project face additional risks to achieving execution of their project including technical and commercial interfaces between separate proponents.

Development of these “dependent” integrated projects will be contingent on the cooperation of all parties before a project can be sanctioned. This introduces significantly greater risk to the project’s likelihood of progressing to operation, relative to projects that are “stand alone”. However, this type of business model has been successfully applied in enhanced oil recovery (EOR) for decades. This business case also seems sensible in that it distributes specific risks to proponents whose core business may position them better to manage those risks.

1.3.5 Are there enough projects under development to achieve the G8 objective?

Not at this stage. In order to meet the G8 objective CCS projects need to be identified now or in the next few years. Excluding the operational projects, the 55 active or planned, commercial scale, integrated projects have nominated start dates for operation ranging from 2009 to 2020. If all of these projects were to progress through to the Operate stage, they would meet the G8 objective.

In order to meet the G8 objective CCS projects need to be identified now or in the next few years

However, for a project to become fully developed it invariably moves through a lifecycle from the Identify stage through to the Operate stage. This process is designed to eliminate projects that are technically or commercially flawed and to ensure investment is focussed on projects with the highest likelihood of success.

In nascent industries, such as CCS or renewable energy, the project failure rate is comparatively high. The number and magnitude of “unknown unknowns” in project development within nascent industries such as renewable energy and CCS significantly influences the failure and analogously, project success rate.

Failure rates of CCS projects are likely to be high at this stage

It is impossible to predict with confidence how many of these 55 projects will become operational. If CCS project failure rates are comparable to those observed for renewable energy projects, then hypothetically, perhaps between 11 and 26 of the 55 projects will proceed to operation. The G8 objective will not be achieved if the lower end of the hypothetical scenario prevails.

Furthermore, the significant number of commercial scale, integrated CCS projects in Europe that are aiming to be operational by 2015 are potentially influenced by the funding mechanisms in place. In particular, the allocation of 300 million European emission allowances (EUAs) by 2014 could be causing rent seeking behaviour. The economic viability of these, and indeed other commercial scale, integrated projects needs further consideration on a case-by-case basis.

The analysis suggests that in order to mitigate this risk of project failure to meeting the 2010 objective, a greater number of candidate projects must be identified by 2010 to supply a sufficient pipeline of potential CCS projects. The number of potential CCS projects could also include those projects that are not currently integrated but have the potential to be integrated with other CCS projects undertaken by separate entities.

A greater number of candidate projects must be identified by 2010 to mitigate the risk of failure

1.3.6 What are the key characteristics of the active or planned, commercial scale, integrated CCS projects?

As stated previously, there are 62 active or planned, commercial scale, integrated CCS projects that are storing, or planning to store 1 Mtpa of CO2 or greater. As stated above, of these, seven projects are already in operation.

These are presented by their geographic location in Figure 1-4 and described further from Table 1-1 through Table 1-5. Figure 1-5 shows the distribution of this subset of projects by region, as well as their position in the asset lifecycle.

The notations, units and acronyms used within the following tables are summarised below.

  • Dependent (D) – Projects that are capture, transport or storage related in the database but are integrated with secondary capture, transport or storage projects to form an integrated CCS system.
  • Separate (S) – In the database, these are listed as two separate projects.
  • CFB – Circulating Fluidised Bed.
  • SNG – Synthetic Natural Gas.
  • NG – Natural Gas.
  • LNG – Liquefied Natural Gas.
  • PFBC – Pressurised Fluidised Bed Combustion.
  • Mt – million tonnes.

Figure 1-4 Active or planned, commercial scale, integrated CCS projects by capture facility, storage type and region

Table 1-1 Active or planned, commercial scale, integrated projects at the Identify stage

Ref. No Project Name State/District, Country Estimated Operation Date Capture Facility Capture Type Transport Type Storage Type Approx. CO2 Storage Rates
1 AEP Northeastern CO2 Capture Project (D) Oklahoma, USA 2011 200 MW slipstream from 450 MW coal fired power plant Post-combustion Pipeline Beneficial reuse (EOR) 1.5 Mtpa
2 Sargas Husnes (D) Hordaland, Norway 2012 4x100 MW PFBC coal fired power plant Post-combustion TBD / not specified Beneficial reuse (EOR) 2.6 Mtpa
3 Karsto Rogaland, Norway 2012 420 MW Natural gas fired power plant Post combustion Pipeline Geological (saline aquifer) 1.0 Mtpa
4 Rotterdam CGEN (D) Rotterdam, Netherlands 2014 450 MW Hard coal / biomass / gas hydrogen power plant Pre-combustion Pipeline / Ship Beneficial reuse (EGR) or geological (depleted oil/gas field) 2.5 Mtpa
5 Lassie (D) Victoria, Australia 2015 Various Various Pipeline Geological >1.0 Mtpa
6 Ledvice (D) North Bohemia, Czech Republic 2015 660 MW Coal fired power plant Post-combustion Pipeline Geological 1.1 Mtpa
7 Siekierki Mokotw district, Poland 2015 480 MW Coal fired power plant Post-combustion Pipeline Geological 2.5 Mtpa
8 Janschwalde Brandenburg, Germany 2015 250 MW coal oxyfiring power plant, 125 MW coal fired for PCC Oxyfiring and post-combustion 150 km Pipeline Geological (saline aquifer) 1.8 Mtpa (Oxyfiring) 0.9 Mtpa (PCC)
Ref. No Project Name State/District, Country Estimated Operation Date Capture Facility Capture Type Transport Type Storage Type Approx. CO2 Storage Rates
9 Shell/Essent Project (D) South-West Netherlands 2015 450-1,000 MW Coal and biomass/pitch IGCC power plant Pre-combustion Pipeline Geological (depleted oil/gas field) 2.0-4.0 Mtpa
10 Nuon Magnum Groningen, Netherlands 2015 1,200 MW Hard coal / biomass / gas IGCC power plant Pre-combustion Pipeline Geological (depleted gas field) 2.0 Mtpa
11 Compastilla Project Leon, Spain 2015 300 MWe Coal oxyfiring power plant Oxyfiring 80-90 km Pipeline Geological (saline aquifer) TBD / not specified
12 Porto Tolle Rovigo, Italy 2015 3x660 MW Coal fired power plant (capture from 1 unit) Post-combustion Pipeline Geological (saline aquifer) 1.0 Mtpa
13 Rotterdam Afvang en Opslag Demo Zuid-Holland, Netherlands 2015 250 MWe capture unit on 800 MW Coal/biomass fired power plant Post-combustion 25 km Pipeline Geological (depleted oil/gas field) 1.1 Mtpa
14 FuturGas South Australia, Australia 2017 Coal to liquids (producing diesel and naphtha / power / sulphur) Pre-combustion 80-200 km Pipeline Geological (saline aquifer and/or depleted oil/gas field) 1.6 Mtpa
15 Yulin Chemical Plant Shanxi Province, China TBD / not specified Coal to liquids (coal to chemicals being studied) Pre-combustion Pipeline TBD / not specified 5.0–10.0 Mtpa
Ref. No Project Name State/District, Country Estimated Operation Date Capture Facility Capture Type Transport Type Storage Type Approx. CO2 Storage Rates
16 BKK Gasskraftverk Mongstad (D) Hordaland, Norway TBD / not specified 450 MW Natural gas fired power Post-combustion Pipeline Geological (saline aquifer) 1.0 Mtpa
17 Kalundborg Sjlland, Denmark TBD / not specified 600 MW Coal fired power plant Post-combustion TBD / not specified Geological (saline aquifer) 3.4 Mtpa
18 SEI - Saline Joniche Reggion Calabria, Italy TBD / not specified 1,320 MW Coal fired power plant Post-combustion Truck or pipeline Geological (saline aquifer) 8.0 Mtpa
19 Tilbury Clean Coal Power Station (D) Essex, England TBD / not specified 2x800 MW Power (coal & biomass) captured from 300 MW net Post-combustion 150 km Pipeline TBD / not specified 4.0 Mtpa

Table 1-2 Active or planned, commercial scale, integrated projects at the Evaluate Stage

Ref. No Project Name State/District, Country Estimated Operation Date Capture Facility Capture Type Transport Type Storage Type Approx. CO2 Storage Rates
20 PCOR Ft Nelson (D) British Columbia, Canada 2011 Gas processing facility NG processing 78 km Pipeline Geological (saline aquifer) 1.6 Mtpa
21 Bintulu Malaysia 2011 LNG plant (gas processing) NG processing TBD / not specified Geological (saline aquifer and/or depleted oil/gas field) 3.0 Mtpa
22 W.A. Parish (D) Texas, USA 2012 125 MW equivalent, coal fired power plant Post-combustion TBD / not specified Beneficial reuse 1.0 Mtpa
23 HYPOGEN (D) Hamburg region, Norway 2014 400 MW Gas/coal hydrogen and power plant Pre-combustion Pipeline, ship or combined Geological 2.5 Mtpa
24 Tenaska Texas, USA 2014 600 MW net Coal fired power plant Post-combustion Pipeline Beneficial reuse (EOR) 4.3 Mtpa
25 Taylorville IGCC (D) Illinois, USA 2014 500-525 MW IGCC (coal) power plant Pre-combustion TBD Geological and/or beneficial reuse TBD
26 Kingsnorth Kent, England 2014 300-400 MWe equivalent capture on 1,600 MW Coal fired power station Post-combustion 270 km Pipeline Geological (depleted gas field) 2.0 Mtpa
27 Hatfield (D) South Yorkshire, England 2014 900 MW gross IGCC (coal) power plant Pre-combustion 80 km Pipeline Geological (saline aquifer and/or depleted oil/gas field) 4.75 Mtpa
28 ZeroGen Queensland, Australia 2015 400 MW IGCC (coal) power plant Pre-combustion 100 km Pipeline Geological (saline aquifer) 2.0 Mtpa
Ref. No Project Name State/District, Country Estimated Operation Date Capture Facility Capture Type Transport Type Storage Type Approx. CO2 Storage Rates
29 Browse LNG Western Australia, Australia 2015 LNG plant (gas processing) NG Processing Pipeline Geological (saline aquifer and/or depleted oil/gas field) 3.0 Mtpa
30 Wandoan Power (D) Queensland, Australia 2015 400 MW net IGCC (coal) power plant Pre-combustion Up to 200 km Pipeline Geological or beneficial reuse (EOR) 2.5 Mtpa
31 Kedzierzyn Opole Province, Poland 2015 300 MW Coal/biomass polygeneration IGCC power plant Pre-combustion Pipeline Geological 2.4 Mtpa
32 Belchatow Łódź Voivodeship province, Poland 2015 858 MW Coal fired power plant Post-combustion Pipeline Geological (saline aquifer) 1.7 Mtpa
33 FINNCAP - Meri Pori (D) Pori, Finland 2015 565 MW Coal fired power plant Post-combustion 800-2000 km Ship Geological 2.4 Mtpa
34 Eston Grange Teesside, England 2015 850 MW Coal/petcoke fired IGCC power plant Pre-combustion 250 km Pipeline Geological (saline aquifer or depleted oil/gas field) 4.2 Mtpa
35 Southern California Edison IGCC (D) Utah, USA 2017 600 MW Coal IGCC power plant Pre-combustion Pipeline Geological (saline aquifer) or Beneficial reuse (EOR) 3.0 Mtpa
36 GreenGen Tianjin, China 2020 1x400 MW IGCC (coal) power plant Pre-combustion TBD / not specified Beneficial reuse (EOR) and/or geological TBD / not specified
37 Coolimba Western Australia, Australia TBD / not specified 2x200 MW or 3x150 MW Coal fired CFB power plant Post-combustion 20-80 km Pipeline Geological (depleted oil/gas field) 3.0 Mtpa
Ref. No Project Name State/District, Country Estimated Operation Date Capture Facility Capture Type Transport Type Storage Type Approx. CO2 Storage Rates
38 Dongguan Guangdong, China TBD / not specified 800 MW IGCC (coal) power plant Pre-combustion TBD / not specified Geological (depleted oil field) 0.1-1.0 Mtpa
39 Lianyungang Jiangsu, China TBD / not specified 1,200 MW IGCC and 1,300 MW ultra supercritical PC power plants (coal) – co- producing SNG and chemicals Pre and post-combustion TBD / not specified Beneficial reuse (EOR) 0.1-1.0 Mtpa

Table 1-3 Active or planned, commercial scale, integrated projects at the Define stage

Ref. No Project Name State/District, Country Estimated Operation Date Capture Facility Capture Type Transport Type Storage Type Approx. CO2 Storage Rates
40 SWP Entrada (D) Wyoming, USA 2009 Gas Processing NG processing Pipeline Geological 1.1 Mtpa
41 Lockwood Gasification (D) Texas, USA 2009 (break ground) SNG Plant Pre-combustion Pipeline Beneficial reuse (EOR) 7.2 Mtpa
42 Antelope Valley and Williston Basin (D,S) North Dakota, USA 2012 120 MW slipstream from 450 MW coal fired power plant Post-combustion Pipeline Beneficial reuse (EOR) 1.0 Mtpa
43 Masdar (D) (S) United Arab Emirates 2013 Multiple – Hydrogen Power Abu Dhabi (HPAD) power plant (1.8 Mtpa), steel (0.8 Mtpa), aluminium smelter (1.7 Mtpa) Post-combustion 300 km Pipeline Beneficial reuse (EOR) 4.3 Mtpa
44 Aalborg (Nordjyllandsvaerket) Nordjylland, Denmark 2014 Coal fired power plant – 300 MWe net with CCS Post-combustion 30 km Pipeline Geological (saline aquifer) 1.9 Mtpa
45 Longannet (D) Fife, Scotland 2014 4x600 MW Coal/biomass fired power station (1 unit with capture) Post-combustion Pipeline or ship Geological (depleted oil/gas field) 2.0 Mtpa
46 Gorgon Project Western Australia, Australia 2015 (est.) LNG plant (gas processing) NG processing Pipeline Geological (saline aquifer) 3.4 Mtpa
Ref. No Project Name State/District, Country Estimated Operation Date Capture Facility Capture Type Transport Type Storage Type Approx. CO2 Storage Rates
47 Genesee CCS Project (D) (S) Alberta, Canada 2015 252 MW net IGCC (coal) power plant Pre-combustion Pipeline Beneficial reuse (EOR) or geological (Alberta Saline Aquifer Project) 1.2 Mtpa
48 RWE Goldenbergwerk (Huerth) North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany 2015 360 MW net IGCC (coal) power plant Pre-combustion Pipeline Geological (saline aquifer) 2.8 Mtpa
49 HECA IGCC California, USA 2015 390 MW gross IGCC (petcoke/coal) power plant Pre-combustion 6.4 km Pipeline Beneficial reuse (EOR) 1.8 Mtpa
50 FutureGen Illinois, USA 2018 275 MW IGCC (coal) power plant Pre-combustion Pipeline Geological (saline aquifer) 1.0 Mtpa
51 Quest CCS Project (D) Alberta, Canada TBD / not specified Oil refinery Oil refining 10-60 km Pipeline Beneficial reuse (EOR) 1.2 Mtpa
52 SWP Deep Saline Sequestration (D) Utah, USA TBD / not specified Gas Processing NG Processing Pipeline Geological 1.0 Mtpa
53 Big Sky Development Test (Moxa Arch) (D) Wyoming, USA TBD / not specified Petroleum or natural gas processing Oil refining or NG processing Pipeline Geological (saline aquifer) 1.0 Mtpa

Table 1-4 Active or planned, commercial scale, integrated projects at the Execute stage

Ref. No Project Name State/District, Country Estimated Operation Date Capture Facility Capture Type Transport Type Storage Type Approx. CO2 Storage Rates
54 Husky CO2 Injection Alberta, Canada 2012 Oil refining Oil refining Pipeline Beneficial reuse (EOR) TBD / not specified
55 Enhance Energy Pipeline and EOR Project (D) (S) Alberta, Canada TBD / not specified Fertiliser and oil refining Oil refining and fertiliser production 240 km Pipeline (Alberta Carbon Trunk Line) Beneficial reuse (EOR) 1.8 Mtpa (initial)

Table 1-5 Active or planned, commercial scale, integrated projects at the Operate stage

Ref. No Project Name State/District, Country Estimated Operation Date Capture Facility Capture Type Transport Type Storage Type Approx. CO2 Storage Rates
56 Rangely EOR Project (D) Colorado, USA 1986 Shute Creek gas processing facility NG processing 285 km Pipeline Beneficial reuse (EOR) 1.0 Mtpa
57 Sleipner North Sea, Norway 1996 CO2 separated from produced gas – gas processing platform NG processing Pipeline (capture and storage at same location) Geological (saline aquifer) (16.3 Mt stored at the end of 2008) 1.0 Mtpa
58 Val Verde CO2 Pipeline (D) (S) Texas, USA 1998 Five natural gas processing plants NG processing 132km Pipeline Beneficial reuse (EOR) 1.0 Mtpa
59 Weyburn Operations (D) Saskatchewan, Canada 2000 (using CO2 as flooding agent) Great Plains Synfuels plant, Dakota Gasification Pre-combustion 330 km Pipeline Beneficial reuse (EOR) 2.4 Mtpa
60 In Salah Ouargla, Algeria 2004 Natural gas processing plant NG processing 14 km Pipeline Geological (3.0 Mt stored to date) 1.2 Mtpa
61 Salt Creek EOR (D) Wyoming, USA 2006 Shute Creek gas processing facility NG processing 201 km Pipeline Beneficial reuse (EOR) 2.4 Mtpa
62 Snøhvit CO2 Injection Barents Sea, Norway 2007 Snøhvit LNG Plant NG processing 160 km Pipeline Geological 0.7 Mtpa

Figure 1-5 Active or planned, commercial scale, integrated CCS projects by region and asset lifecycle stage

Figure 1-5, the categorisation of commercial scale, integrated projects by region and asset lifecycle stage shows that 66 percent of proposed projects are in the power generation sector. However, none of these have advanced beyond project sanction. The cement, aluminium and iron and steel production industries are significantly underrepresented in terms of proposed commercial scale, integrated CCS projects.

66

percent of proposed projects were in power generation

In terms of geographic distribution, 37 percent of this subset are in Europe, 24 percent in the United States of America (USA), 11 percent in Australia and New Zealand, and 10 percent in Canada. The distribution of projects in other parts of the world such as India, China or South America is relatively low.

Of this subset of 62 projects, 63 percent are considering geological storage. Beneficial reuse (that is, EOR, enhanced gas recovery (EGR) or enhanced coal bed methane recovery (ECBMR)) represents a further 26 percent by storage type. The remaining 11 percent of projects did not specify the storage type or this is yet to be determined.

The USA, Europe, Australia and Canada are leading developers of CCS projects

A number of the projects proposed in the Europe Area are considering offshore storage options. The costs of developing new storage sites offshore will likely be an order of magnitude greater than onshore storage options. Many of these are likely to be subject to transboundary transport challenges associated with the Basel Convention and the London Protocol that prohibit CO2 transport across national boundaries.

Of the 62 active or planned, commercial scale, integrated CCS projects, 30 are classified as “dependent” integrated CCS projects. The risk of these projects not proceeding could be higher because they involve other parties delivering key and separate components to form an integrated CCS system. The weakest link could determine the fate of the entire system.

The operational projects within this subset obtain their CO2 from natural gas processing, except for one gasification plant. Four of the seven projects in operation are using the CO2 for EOR, while the remaining three projects are storing the CO2 in geological formations.

1.3.7 What is the level of engagement in CCS by the largest emitters?

Varied. The USA, Europe, Australia and Canada are the most active regions. The USA, European, Canadian and Australian governments have programs in place to support project development.

The majority of project activities are at early stages of the asset lifecycle where funding requirements are relatively minor compared to overall capital costs. Also, the technical and commercial viability of many of these projects are yet to be confirmed.

The USA, Canada, and Norway are furthest advanced with sequestration activity at commercial scale. While the USA is driven by a confluence of regional coal dependent markets and EOR opportunities, Canada is investing in CCS to keep its EOR and oil sands market viable. Norway continues to emerge as a sequestration centre, capturing and storing CO2 from natural gas processing operations for storage in saline aquifers.

China and some countries in the Middle East have some CCS initiatives and a track record of accelerating industrial projects if given the correct incentives

Coal dependent economies, led by Australia, China, the United Kingdom (UK), Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark and Poland are increasing the number of CCS demonstration projects. This is primarily to prolong this important domestic and export market.

Of the regions of the world that are forecast to experience significant CO2 emissions to atmosphere there are some positive signals that CCS can be deployed. For example, China and some countries in the Middle East have a number of initiatives and a track record of accelerating industrial projects if the correct incentives are present.