I.3. North America and Mexico

On USA and Canada, the qualitative source sink matching indicates areas where projects should be launched not later than 2012 in order to reach bankability between 2020 and 2022. We did not assume the development of new projects in the Canadian Alberta Saskatchewan area since there are a lot of planned projects already in this area. The characterization need is therefore less acute.

The offshore location even if it might be counterintuitive due to the lower onshore storage costs and the availability of reservoirs have been picked up due to favourable source sink matching criteria (Florida), the presence of depleted fields and infrastructure US and Mexican golf of Mexico.

10 additional candidate projects can be found. Among them:

  • 3 onshore suitable DSF
  • 1 onshore Highly suitable DSF
  • 1 onshore possible DSF (Mexico)
  • 2 onshore depleted
  • 1 offshore depleted (1 shallow)
  • 1 offshore possible DSF shallow
  • 1 offshore suitable DSF Shallow

Figure 123: North America - Additional candidates for bankability 2020-2022

Following the same probabilistic approach of success as was developed in section 4, these 10 candidates could bring 8 additional bankable projects. Such additional projects would have the following cumulated success, and probabilistic failure cost. This gives an average success cost of 50 M€ (Figure 124) which is quite low due to nature of project (onshore - suitable areas).

Note: the line/arrow indicates the mean value (modal value) of the distribution

Figure 124: Success and failure costs - additional candidates for bankability – North America and Mexico