4.1 REFERENCE SCENARIO

The Reference Scenario is calibrated to the reference scenario of the WAPP Master Plan, which is based on a number of conservative assumptions on renewable deployment. This study's Reference Scenario was set up mainly to demonstrate the compatibility of the tool used for the WAPP Master Plan development.

As expected, the results are consistent with those presented in the reference scenario of the WAPP Master Plan. Figure 8 presents the electricity generation mix in the Reference Scenario.

The main difference between the EREP results and the WAPP Master Plan is the lower share of hydro in the EREP model due to the "dry-year" assumption imposed over the entire modelling horizon.

It is worth noting that EREP filled current supply-demand gap with on-site diesel generators. As more power supply options become available, this gap is quickly filled and replaced by grid-supply electricity or on-site renewable energy technology options, mainly from mini-hydro.

Hydropower share in the total electricity generation increases from 18% to 34% (22% to 29% of grid-connected electricity), and the share of other renewables remains small, at 5% by 2030 with most of it coming from biomass.

Figure 8. Electricity Production in the Reference Scenario