Summary

This project:

  • Updates the IEAGHG R&D programme CO2 sources database with all the major current and planned industrial sources of CO2 in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh (the updated CO2 sources database is available from the IEAGHG R&D Programme).
  • Identifies the CO2 storage capacity of each of these three countries in oil and gas fields and coal seams and ranks the sedimentary basins in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka in terms of their saline aquifer CO2 storage potential (sedimentary basins north of the frontal thrusts of the Himalayas were not investigated).
  • Identifies the local costs of the main elements of the CO2 capture and storage chain, such that they could be used to produce marginal CO2 abatement cost curves in a future project.
  • Provides a geological CO2 storage potential GIS of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.

Current CO2 emissions from large point sources in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka compared to the most recent estimates of total national CO2 emissions are shown in Table 0.1.

Table 0.1 Current CO2 emissions from large point sources in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.

Country Annual CO2 emissions from large point sources (106 tonnes) Total annual CO2 emissions 2004 (106 tonnes)*
India 721 1343
Pakistan 45 126
Bangladesh 17 37
Sri Lanka 3 12

* 2004 is the latest year for which information is available. Source: United Nations Statistical Division 2007

All four countries are undergoing rapid economic development and under a business-as-usual scenario there will be a parallel increase in CO2 emissions. This is well illustrated by a comparison of CO2 emissions from operational power plants in India with those under construction or planned. Under the Eleventh 5-year Plan (2007-2012) India is in the process of installing nearly 58 GW of generating capacity. Additionally, India is planning to build up to nine ultra-supercritical coal-fired power plants each of up to 4 GWe installed capacity. These Ultra-Mega Power Projects (UMPPs) alone could add a further 257 Mt CO2 to India’s emissions within the next 7-8 years. (Table 0.2).

Table 0.2 Comparison of annual CO2 emissions from operational power plants in India with those planned and under construction (million tonnes CO2)

Operational power plants 467.36
Planned or under construction power plants (11th plan) 395.77
Planned Ultra Mega Power Projects 257.34

This indicates that India’s emissions from the power sector alone will likely more than double over the next decade.

India’s annual CO2 emissions from existing and operational large point sources were 720.99 Mt CO2 in 2005-6. Figure 0.1 shows that the main potential CO2 storage sites in India are located around the margins of the peninsula and in Gujarat and Rajasthan. Thus CO2 sources in the centre of the peninsula are poorly placed with respect to potential CO2 storage sites.

Figure 0.1 Location of CO2 point sources and CO2 storage potential in India (basin outlines mainly after DGH)

The brief survey of the CO2 storage potential of India’s sedimentary basins made in this report is far from definitive and their classification into basins with good, fair and limited saline aquifer CO2 storage potential inevitably involved judgements, in some cases made on very slender evidence. Nevertheless, it is clear that there is likely to be considerable saline aquifer CO2 storage potential around the margins of peninsula India, especially in the shallow offshore zone and in Gujarat and Rajasthan. There is also considerable saline aquifer storage potential in Assam and probably in Cachar, Tripura and Mizoram, although this is stranded relative to the main emission sources in India, which are in the peninsula.

There is estimated to be limited storage potential in India’s coalfields (345 Mt CO2), oil fields (1.0 to 1.1 Gt CO2) and gas fields (2.7 to 3.5 Gt CO2). Even if all this capacity were to be deployed it would make little impression on future emissions from large point sources, which were about 721 Mt CO2 in 2005-6.

Pakistan has relatively low annual CO2 emissions from large point sources (45.06 Mt CO2). It has significant CO2 storage potential (1.7 Gt CO2) in its gas fields when they become depleted. Four gas fields (the Sui, Mari, Qadirpur and Uch fields) are estimated to have the potential to store >200 Mt CO2. Moreover Pakistan has good potential for saline aquifer CO2 storage in the Lower Indus and Potwar Basins. There is little storage potential in Pakistan’s coalfields and oil fields - none of the oil fields are thought to have a storage capacity of 10 Mt or more. Nevertheless it is clear that Pakistan is well placed to exploit CCS technology. All the major CO2 sources are close to potential gas field storage sites or above sedimentary basins with good saline aquifer CO2 storage potential (Figure 0.2).

Figure 0.2 Location of CO2 point sources and potential geological storage sites in Pakistan

Bangladesh has very low annual CO2 emissions from large point sources (approximately 17 Mt CO2). These emissions come mainly from power plants and cement factories in the east of the country and the refinery at Chittagong. It is thought to have very significant CO2 storage potential in its gas fields (1133 Mt CO2) which will become available gradually as the individual fields are depleted. The small coalfields in the NW of Bangladesh have no significant CO2 storage potential. Saline aquifer CO2 storage potential could not be quantified in the current project due to lack of appropriate geological data. Nevertheless it is clear that Bangladesh probably has very significant CO2 storage potential in saline aquifers in most of the eastern half of the country, both onshore and offshore. Geologically, this aquifer storage capacity is located in the prominent anticlines in the eastern part of the Bengal Basin and likely also in the Chittagong Hill Tracts. Thus, although no significant CO2 storage capacity has been identified west of the Jamuna River, where the major source is the coal-fired power plant at Barapukuria, Bangladesh is well placed to take advantage of CCS in the future. The locations of point sources, gas fields and areas with good saline aquifer CO2 storage potential in Bangladesh are shown in Figure 0.3.

Figure 0.3 Location of CO2 point sources and potential geological storage sites in Bangladesh

Sri Lanka’s total annual emissions of CO2 from large point sources are comparatively small, and estimated to be approximately 2.6 Mt. These will be increased by the operation of new coal-fired power plant, but national emissions will still be very small in global terms.

Geologically, most of onshore Sri Lanka is made up of Precambrian crystalline rocks with no CO2 storage potential. There are no coal deposits known in Sri Lanka. No oil fields or gas fields have been discovered to date, but there is oil and gas potential in the Sri Lankan side of the Cauvery Basin, offshore to the north of the island, in Palk Bay and the Gulf of Mannar (Figure 0.4). There may be some saline aquifer CO2 storage capacity in this area as well, but it cannot be quantified at present. The new coal-fired power plant under construction at Norochcholai is relatively well placed with respect to the inferred CO2 storage potential in the Cauvery Basin.

There is considerable scope to improve the CO2 storage capacity estimates in all countries. There is a particular need to firm up and quantify the perceived aquifer CO2 storage potential in India. Without this, India’s geological CO2 storage potential is perceived to be very limited - unless the basalt storage concept can be matured into a demonstrable solution to large point source emissions. Therefore it is recommended that the following further work could usefully be undertaken:

In India:

  • The CO2 storage capacity of the saline water-bearing reservoir rocks in one or more of the strategically placed sedimentary basins in India considered to have good aquifer storage potential should be quantified. This would require a detailed review of oil and gas exploration data and thus would require input from an organisation holding the necessary data.
  • The potential to retrofit India’s existing, under construction and planned coal-fired power plants for carbon dioxide capture could be investigated.
  • The potential and outline costs for geological storage of the emissions from one or more of India’s major planned power plants should be estimated.
  • Scientific debate about the saline aquifer CO2 storage capacity of India’s sedimentary basins should be encouraged, in order to establish their true potential.
  • The CO2 storage capacity of India’s oil and, particularly, gas fields should be estimated on a field-by-field basis. This would require field-by-field estimates of ultimately recoverable reserves. Such a study could include identification of fields with potential for CO2 storage and enhanced oil recovery. This could identify potential low-cost pilot projects.

In Pakistan:

  • Potential storage sites could be matched with sources of emissions.
  • The storage capacity of Pakistan’s saline water-bearing reservoir rocks could be quantified
  • The CO2 storage capacity of Pakistan’s gas fields could be estimated in more detail and expected close of production dates could be used to estimate when fields might be available for CO2 storage.
  • The potentially for retrofit of Pakistan’s fossil fuel-fired power plants for carbon dioxide capture could be investigated.

In Bangladesh:

  • Further investigation of the potential to retrofit fossil fuel fired power plants for CCS could be investigated.
  • The CO2 storage capacity of Bangladesh’s gas fields could be estimated in more detail and expected close of production dates could be used to estimate when fields might be available for CO2 storage.
  • The CO2 storage capacity of Bangladesh’s saline water-bearing reservoir rocks could be quantified.

In Sri Lanka:

  • Further investigation to more closely determine the CO2 storage potential of the Sri Lankan side of the Cauvery Basin is considered to be a necessary first step towards determining the national CCS potential.

Figure 0.4 Location of CO2 sources in Sri Lanka and the oil and gas fields of the Cauvery Basin

Reference

United Nations Statistics Division 2007. unstats.un.org/unsd/environment/air_co2_emissions.htm (accessed January 2007).