Research Background

THE GERMAN AEROSPACE CENTRE

The German Aerospace centre (DLR) is the largest engineering research organisation in Germany. Among its specialities are the development of solar thermal power station technologies, the utilisation of low and high temperature fuel cells, particularly for electricity generation, and research into the development of high efficiency gas and steam turbine power plants.

The Institute of Technical Thermodynamics at DLR (DLR-ITT) is active in the field of renewable energy research and technology development for efficient and low emission energy conversion and utilisation. Working in co-operation with other DLR institutes, industry and universities, research is focused on solving key problems in electrochemical energy technology and solar energy conversion. this encompasses application oriented research, development of laboratory and prototype models as well as design and operation of demonstration plants. System analysis and technology assessment supports the preparation of strategic decisions in the field of research and energy policy.

Within DLR-ITT, the System Analysis and Technology Assessment Division has long term experience in the assessment of renewable energy technologies. Its main research activities are in the field of techno-economic utilisation and system analysis, leading to the development of strategies for the market introduction and dissemination of new technologies, mainly in the energy and transport sectors.

SCENARIO BACKGROUND

DLR was commissioned by the European Renewable Energy Council and Greenpeace International to conduct the study 'Energy [R]evolution: A sustainable global energy outlook', developing global sustainable energy pathways up to 20501. This study, first published in January 2007 and the 3rd edition published in June 2010, lays out energy scenarios with emissions that are significantly lower than current levels.

Part of the study examined the future potential for renewable energy sources; together with input from the wind energy industry and analysis of regional projections for wind power around the world, this forms the basis of the Global Wind energy Outlook scenario.

The energy supply scenarios adopted in this report, which both extend beyond and enhance projections by the International Energy Agency, have been calculated using the MESAP/ PlaNet simulation model by DLR covering all 10 world regions. this model has then been developed in cooperation with Ecofys consultancy to take into account the future potential for energy efficiency measures.

ENERGY EFFICIENCY STUDY2

The aim of the ecofys study was to develop low energy demand scenarios for the period 2007 to 2050 on a sectoral level for the IEA regions as defined in the World energy Outlook report series. energy demand was split up into electricity and fuels. The sectors which were taken into account were industry, transport and other consumers, including households and services.

The Ecofys study envisages an ambitious overall development path for the exploitation of energy efficiency potential, focused on current best practice as well as technologies available in the future, and assuming continuous innovation in the field. The result is that worldwide final energy demand is reduced by 35% in 2050 in comparison to the reference scenario. energy savings are fairly equally distributed over the three sectors. The most important energy saving options are the implementation of more efficient passenger and freight transport, improved heat insulation and building design, and technical efficiency standards for consumer applications, stand-by modes and It equipment.

While the Ecofys study develops two energy efficiency scenarios, only the more moderate of these has been used in this report.

DEFINITIONS OF REGIONS IN ACCORDANCE WITH IEA CLASSIFICATION

OECD Europe: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom

OECD North America: Canada, Mexico, United States

OECD Pacific: Australia, Japan, Korea (South), New Zealand

Eastern Europe/Eurasia: Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Serbia and Montenegro, the former Republic of Macedonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Romania, Russia, Slovenia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Cyprus 3, Malta 3

India

Non-OECD Asia: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei, Cambodia, Chinese Taipei, Cook Islands, East Timor, Fiji, French Polynesia, Indonesia, Kiribati, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Laos, Macao, Malaysia, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, New Caledonia, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Samoa, Singapore, Solomon Islands, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Tonga, Vietnam, Vanuatu

Latin America: Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, Argentina, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bermuda, Bolivia, Brazil, the British Virgin Islands, the Cayman Islands, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominica, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, the Falkland Islands, French Guyana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Martinique, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, St. Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Pierre et Miquelon, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, the Turks and Caicos Islands, Uruguay and Venezuela

Africa: Algeria, Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Cote d'Ivoire, Djibouti, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-bissau, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mauritius, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Reunion, Rwanda, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Africa, Sudan, Swaziland, United Republic of Tanzania, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

Middle East: Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, United Arab Emirates, Yemen

China: People's Republic of China including Hong Kong

1 Krewitt W, Simon S, Graus W, Teske S, Zervos A, Schaefer O, 'The 2 degrees C scenario - A sustainable world energy perspective'; Energy Policy, Vol.35, No.10, 4969-4980, 2007; and www.energyblueprint.info

2 www.energyblueprint.info/1211.0.html

3 Cyprus and Malta are allocated to Eastern Europe/Eurasia for statistical reasons